On Saturday, the 18/16th ranked Utes travel to Eugene to take on the Ducks of Oregon. Utah (2-0) will put their national leading 16 game winning streak and current 9 game road winning streak on the line at hostile Autzen Stadium. After opening the season with wins against two WAC opponents, the Utes will face a stiffer test against one of the traditional PAC-10 elite. Oregon (1-1), who started the season with much controversy after the Boise State fiasco, rebounded with a narrow win last week over Purdue. Both Utah and Oregon have showed potential, but costly mistakes and some poor play in their first two games have caused some frustration. This may very well be the week in which one, or both, of these teams put together a solid game and position themselves for a great season.Storylines
- The rushing attack: Going into the 2009 season, both the Utes and Ducks had their running games solidified with great g0-to backs. One of those backs won't be playing, and the possibility exists that both might be out. Oregon's LeGarrette Blount has been suspended for the season for punching a Boise State player so he absolutely won't play - and Utah's Matt Asiata is listed as questionable and is a game-time decision. Oregon will use a 3 running back committee involving LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, and Andre Crenshaw. If Asiata is not available for the Utes, Eddie Wide will take the majority of carries while freshman Sausan Shakerin (questionable as well) might get a few more attempts. Also, expect Duck's QB Jeremiah Masoli and Utes QB Terrance Cain to run the ball frequently.
- Autzen Stadium: Notorious as one of the most intimidating venues in all of sports, Autzen Stadium provides Oregon with a dominant home-field advantage. Since 1997, the Ducks have compiled an overwhelming 32-4 record at home. In a 2007 Oregon defeat of USC, crowd noise was measured at a record deafening 127.2 decibels (The same as a jet engine while taking off). The Utes have been preparing for the environment by piping in crowd noise while practicing within their indoor facility. The Utes have played, and won, in some big environments recently including the Big house in Michigan and the Sugar Bowl so it will be interesting to see how they are affected. Autzen expects its 61st straight sellout Saturday with a roaring crowd in excess of 55,000.
- Offensive Consistency: If there is one thing the Utes and Ducks share, it is their consistent inconsistencies on the offensive side of the ball. It took Oregon nearly their entire first game to get a first down but they showed some moderate improvement last week against Purdue. The Utes have been killed by penalties and turnovers and need to finish long drives with points. This could be the week that both teams put together a solid offensive performance.
My Analysis and Prediction
This is a big game for both teams. For Oregon, a loss could mean a 1-2 start and could destroy any confidence that the Ducks will be a contender in the PAC-10 this season. For the Utes, a win on the road at Oregon could give this team the swagger they need to make a run at another excellent season.
For the Utes to win they need to accomplish several things on the field:
The first and most important key to winning is to win the turnover battle. Through two games the Utes have yet to do this. Not only does the offense need to do a better job of protecting the ball, the defense has to do their part and force more turnovers. The defense has only forced two turnovers through two games, leaving the turnover margin at -3 for the Utes. They were able to get away with that the first two games, but if this discrepancy repeats itself in Oregon, the Utes will have a hard time winning.
The second key is to contain the run. Oregon's three back committee will try to establish themselves early and often. If Utah can force the Ducks to shy away from the run game and force QB Jeremiah Masoli to use his arm the Utes will be at an advantage. Masoli is only 25-48 for 284 yards and an INT on the season and has proven ineffective to beat teams through the air. Boise State provided a blueprint for the Utes when they effectively stopped the Ducks ground attack, holding Oregon to only 31 rushing yards and ultimately only allowing 8 points.
The third key plays off of the second. If the Utes are available to force the Ducks into more passing attempts, the Utah secondary must do a better job of covering the receivers. RJ Stanford had a tough time last week against San Jose State and might be tested often by Oregon. I trust Coach Whittingham has addressed the issues regarding last game and that the secondary should have a better showing. Also, the defensive line must get some pressure on the QB. If the line forces Masoli into some poor throws the defense might be able to capitalize with some turnovers.
The last key is for the kicking game to redeem itself. After years of Louie Sakoda we have been spoiled and have not had to worry about this. This game has the possibility of being very close and a missed field goal here or there might cost the Utes a win. Joe Philips has been given the nod on field goals, but if a long attempt is needed we might see Vroman since he has the stronger leg. Vroman must shake off last week's horrendous outing and be mentally prepared to make a big kick if he has to.
I believe this game will be close throughout but in the end, the Utes will prove a little too much for a struggling Oregon team. The Utes have an aptitude to play great in big games and I see the trend extending through this weekend. Terrance Cain will have a breakout performance and we will get to see his talent and capabilities showcased at a higher level. The defense will continue to stop the run and force the Ducks to bend away from what they want to do. There will be several tight moments but the Utes will prevail victorious.
Utah 35 - Oregon 27
Let's roast some duck!
